Stock Lists · Stage 3 of 3
Four-Gate Selections
The stocks from the ML + Fundamentals list that also cleared the AI catalyst review and a final human review. Each selection carries its stock-specific 90% CSP/Wheel level for the expiration date shown, for cash-secured put and Wheel traders.
The ML and fundamental lists post before the open. This list waits for the morning’s news and scheduled events, then the catalyst review and final human review, so it may post or update after the open. Check the time stamp on the table.
Posted after the catalyst review and final human review|Sorted by 5-day probability, highest first
| Ticker | Company or fund | 5-day probability | Morning discount | 90% CSP / Wheel level | Open | Expiration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLIETF | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | 96.5% | 2.45% | $165.42 | $169.58 | Fri, Sep 25 |
| PNC | PNC Financial Services | 94.7% | 3.41% | $219.21 | $226.94 | Fri, Sep 25 |
| LRCX | Lam Research | 93.1% | 5.83% | $285.20 | $302.85 | Fri, Sep 25 |
| SPXLETF | Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X | 89.4% | 6.28% | $275.03 | $293.46 | Fri, Sep 25 |
| FTAI | FTAI Aviation | 89.3% | 5.24% | $181.41 | $191.43 | Fri, Sep 25 |
For CSP and Wheel traders
Using the discount
The percentage is the level. The dollar figure in the table is that percentage applied to the price captured when the list was posted, so it is a snapshot, not a live number. When you look at the table later in the day, apply the discount to the price you see:
current price × (1 − discount as a decimal) = the 90% CSP/Wheel level at that price
Convert the percentage first: 5.83% is 0.0583, not 5.83.
Each stock’s morning discount is specific to that stock, the day the selection was posted, and the expiration date shown. Monday’s discount is different from Tuesday’s, Tuesday’s from Wednesday’s, and so on. It does not carry over to another stock, another posting day, or another expiration.
- Calculated level and listed strike.
- The table shows an exact calculated price level, such as $285.20. Options are available only at fixed strike prices. If the listed strikes were $285 and $287.50, the $285 strike is below the calculated level and the $287.50 strike is above it. The $285 strike is the closest corresponding listed strike below the calculated level. The table does not tell you whether to enter a trade.
- A 90% level means what it says:
- in roughly one comparable historical window in ten, the stock closed below the calculated level on the expiration date shown.
- Expiration and weekday window.
- The discount changes depending on the day the selection is posted, because the time remaining to expiration changes. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday selections use that week’s Friday expiration. Thursday and Friday selections use the following Friday expiration; a one-day Thursday-to-Friday window is not used. Always confirm the expiration date shown in the table.
Worked example
LRCX posted at $302.85 with a discount of 5.83%, giving a 90% CSP/Wheel level of $285.20.
If LRCX is trading at $298.00 when you look, apply the same 5.83% discount:
$298.00 × (1 − 0.0583)
= $298.00 × 0.9417
= $280.63
Figures from the sample date shown above.
Try it with today’s price
$298.00 × (1 − 0.0583)
90% CSP/Wheel level at this price$280.63
Use the morning discount shown in the table for that stock, posting day and expiration. The discount was calculated from the opening price; applied to a later price, the result approximates the 90% CSP/Wheel level at that price and is not the published table value. It is a calculated level, not a strike and not a recommendation.
Glossary
How to read this table
Four gates, one probability, one model-derived level. Nothing here is a trade instruction; whether and how a selection fits your account is your decision.
- 5-day probability
- The model’s probability that the stock closes higher five trading days after the most recent close.
- Morning discount
- How far the level sits below the price captured when the list was posted. The percentage is the level; the dollar figure applies it to that price.
- 90% CSP / Wheel level
- A model-derived level, from this stock’s own price history, that it closed above on the expiration date in roughly nine of ten comparable historical windows.
- Open
- The price used to work out the dollar level, captured when this list was published. Prices move during the day; apply the discount to the price you actually see.
- Expiration
- Monday through Wednesday selections use that week’s Friday; Thursday and Friday selections use the following Friday. A one-day Thursday-to-Friday window is not used.
- The four gates
- ML probability 0.75 or higher, fundamental criteria met, AI current-event review, and final human review. Every stock here cleared all four.
- ETFs
- Funds are screened on the ML probability, the AI catalyst review and the final human review. The company fundamental screen does not apply to a fund and is not claimed for one.
- Empty days
- Some days nothing clears every gate. On those days this table says so rather than showing a weaker list.
A 70% probability loses three times in ten. Not investment advice.