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Probability Trader Pro
Daily News Brief
Monday, November 2, 2026 · Odds as of Friday's close
A big week starts today: Apple and Palantir report tonight, the midterm elections are Tuesday, and the jobs report comes Friday. Today's free pick is a familiar name. A week ago our model gave it 4.3%; this morning it gives 82.8%.
Today's free pick: CLS, a week later
Our model gives Celestica (CLS) an 82.8% chance of closing higher five trading days from now. Celestica builds the servers and networking hardware that go into AI data centers for the biggest cloud companies. The stock closed Friday at $265.53.
If the name sounds familiar, it should. CLS was our pick last Tuesday, when the model gave it just 4.3%. We chose it that day because Celestica had reported strong earnings after the close, news a price-only model could not see yet. Here is what the model has said since: 29% after Tuesday's close, 48% after Wednesday's, 82% after Thursday's and 83% after Friday's. Once the news reached the price, the model read it.
The news itself: Celestica's third-quarter revenue rose 83% from a year ago, the company raised its 2026 forecast, and it gave a first look at 2027 of about $40 billion in revenue. Because Celestica has already reported, there is no earnings report inside this week's window. Last week's pick window ends with today's close, and we'll report how it did in tomorrow's brief.
The other side: Celestica's customers are the same tech giants whose AI spending investors punished last week. Alphabet and Amazon both said they will keep spending heavily, and that spending is Celestica's revenue. But if the selling in AI stocks continues, CLS can fall along with them, whatever its own results. This is also a crowded week for news.
Is it a sure thing? No. An 82.8% probability means that roughly one time in six, a stock in this pattern has closed lower. We'll look back once the five days are up.
The odds this morning
After every close, our models update the odds that each fund will be higher about a week from now. A 50% reading is a coin flip. The dots show where each fund stood Friday morning.
- Big tech (QQQ, Nasdaq 100): 92%, unchanged.
- Small companies (IWM, Russell 2000): 81%, up from 68%.
- Broad market (SPY, S&P 500): 30%, down from 38%.
These odds now include Friday's selloff, when the Nasdaq fell 2.9% and the S&P 500 fell 1.8%. Even after that drop, the big-tech odds held at 92%.
The biggest move was in the equal-weight S&P 500 fund, where every company counts the same. It jumped from 22% to 51%, so the typical company went from leaning lower to a coin flip. How can the broad market sit at 30% while big tech is at 92% and the typical company at 51%? Each fund has its own model, built from its own price history, so they don't have to agree.
Under the hood
Across the 279 stocks with odds today, the picture brightened. 75 are at 75% or better (64 on Friday), 71 lean mildly higher (64), and 133 lean lower (151). The average stock sits at 52%, up from 50%.
Underneath, 78 stocks gained at least 10 points of odds and 57 lost at least 10.
Among the sector funds, the biggest gains were health care (XLV, 25% to 43%), gold (GLD, 69% to 87%) and financials (XLF, 48% to 62%). The biggest drops were communications (XLC, 98% to 75%), technology (XLK, 98% to 80%) and biotech (XBI, 71% to 56%). And Friday's pick, the energy fund XLE, fell further, from 25% to 16%. The model still disagrees with our override; we'll see who was right.
The news
A rough end to a rough week for tech
The Nasdaq fell 2.9% on Friday and the S&P 500 fell 1.8%, after Amazon and Intel's reports added to the selling that began after Alphabet's report on Wednesday evening. The common thread: investors want the huge spending on AI to start turning into cash, and several companies showed it isn't yet.
Why it matters: this week brings more tests of the same question, with Apple and Palantir tonight and AMD on Tuesday.
Iran: talks and preparations, side by side
President Trump spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday. Axios, citing U.S. and Israeli officials, reported that Netanyahu pressed for strikes on Iran right after Tuesday's elections, while Trump wants to give negotiations more time. Trump told reporters the talks were "going fine" and that he was not in much of a hurry. Iran's security chief confirmed he received a letter from Vice President Vance seeking to restart talks, and Secretary of State Rubio said no final decision has been made.
Why it matters: the outcome moves oil prices, energy stocks like Friday's pick, and fuel-sensitive businesses like airlines and cruise lines. Both paths remain open.
Still ahead this week
- Today, after the close: Apple reports (its first quarter under new CEO John Ternus), along with Palantir.
- Tuesday: the midterm elections. AMD reports after the close.
- Wednesday: Uber, Qualcomm, McDonald's and Arm report.
- Friday: the October jobs report.
- All week: we'll look back at last week's picks (CLS, GEO, TER and XLE) as each five-day window closes.
Probability Trader Pro publishes probability research for education only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Probabilities are projections from historical data; they are not certainties. Levels are based on historical frequencies; they are not predictions or guarantees. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Company figures are from the companies' own releases.
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