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Probability Trader Pro
Daily News Brief
Friday, October 30, 2026 · Odds as of Thursday's close
Today's free pick goes against our own model, on purpose. Overnight news about Iran pushed oil higher, and Exxon and Chevron reported big quarters this morning. Meanwhile, Amazon and Intel are dragging tech stocks lower before the open.
Today's free pick: XLE, and why we're overriding the odds
XLE is the Energy Select Sector SPDR fund, which holds large U.S. oil and gas companies. Our model gives it just a 24.6% chance of closing higher five trading days from now. That is far below our 75% line. XLE did not pass Gate 1, and we want to be upfront about that.
So why pick it? The model learned from years of XLE's price behavior, and the pattern it sees now has usually been followed by a lower close a week later. But it only sees prices through Thursday's close. Since then, three things have happened that the model cannot see:
- Iran. The Wall Street Journal reported that the top U.S. commander in the Middle East briefed President Trump on Thursday on military options against Iran. The Journal said the administration is weighing renewed combat operations, possibly after Tuesday's midterm elections.
- Oil. U.S. crude rose about 2% this morning to around $104 a barrel. Brent, the global benchmark, traded between about $113 and $118 depending on the contract month, and is headed for its fourth straight monthly gain, up more than 10% in October.
- Earnings. Exxon and Chevron, two of the fund's biggest holdings, reported profits well above Wall Street's estimates this morning (details below). XLE was up about 1.5% before the open.
For a real-world sense of what fuel prices are doing: a residential cruise ship, the MV Odyssey, has suspended its round-the-world voyage in Cambodia. Its operator says fuel costs per cabin rose from about $1,800 a month to an estimated $6,000 to $8,000 in parts of Asia.
Here is an interesting detail. The same models give the oil fund itself (USO) 72% odds, up from 35% the day before. So the models already lean toward higher oil prices; it is the energy stocks whose recent pattern looks weak.
The case against this pick is real. No decision on Iran has been made. President Trump said Thursday he hoped to avoid military action, and in a radio interview he said the war would be "wrapped up soon." Vice President Vance has reached out to a senior Iranian official to try to restart talks. A diplomatic breakthrough could send oil sharply lower, and some of the risk may already be in the price. The model's low odds may turn out to be right.
Our five-day window runs through next Friday, November 6, and includes Tuesday's election. This is the human review gate doing what it is there for: weighing news the model cannot see. It is also a test. The model says energy stocks in this pattern have closed higher only about one time in four. We'll look back next week and show you how it turned out, whichever way it goes.
The odds this morning
After every close, our models update the odds that each fund will be higher about a week from now. A 50% reading is a coin flip. The dots show where each fund stood yesterday morning.
- Big tech (QQQ, Nasdaq 100): 92%, up from 81%.
- Small companies (IWM, Russell 2000): 68%, up from 63%.
- Broad market (SPY, S&P 500): 38%, up from 23%.
Thursday's close already included Alphabet's big drop, and the model still raised the big-tech odds. What it does not include is this morning's selling: Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 2% before the open after Amazon and Intel's reports. Monday's odds will reflect it.
One number moved the other way. The equal-weight S&P 500 fund, where every company counts the same, fell from 40% to 22%. The big companies lean higher; the typical company leans lower.
Under the hood
Across the 279 stocks with odds today, the picture spread out toward both ends. 64 are at 75% or better (50 yesterday), 64 lean mildly higher (88), and 151 lean lower (142). The average stock is still a coin flip at 50%.
Another busy day underneath: 75 stocks gained at least 10 points of odds and 70 lost at least 10.
Among the sector funds, the biggest gains were the oil fund (USO, 35% to 72%), gold miners (GDX, 66% to 83%) and gold (GLD, 53% to 69%). The biggest drops were utilities (XLU, 65% to 33%), financials (XLF, 78% to 48%) and health care (XLV, 48% to 25%). The energy stock fund (XLE) edged up from 19% to 25%.
The news
Exxon and Chevron beat estimates
- Chevron (CVX): third-quarter profit of $9.9 billion, nearly triple the $3.5 billion a year ago, on revenue up 36% to $67.8 billion. Its U.S. refineries ran at record volumes.
- Exxon (XOM): revenue up 33% to $113.2 billion, and profit per share more than doubled. Its Gulf Coast refineries ran at full capacity.
Why it matters: higher oil and diesel prices flow straight into these companies' profits. Both stocks were up 1.5% to 2% before the open.
A rough week for big tech ends with Amazon and Intel
- Amazon (AMZN): sales rose 12% to $201.9 billion and its cloud business (AWS) grew 39%, but sales and profit fell short of estimates, and free cash flow was negative for a second straight quarter as it spends heavily on AI. The stock was down about 7% before the open.
- Intel (INTC): third-quarter revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion and earnings beat estimates, but its forecast for the current quarter came in well below expectations, citing a weak PC market. The stock was down about 25% before the open.
Why it matters: it is the same message investors sent Alphabet on Wednesday. Strong AI demand is no longer enough on its own; investors want to see the spending turn into cash.
Still ahead
- This weekend: markets are closed, but Iran news can move Monday's open.
- Tuesday, November 3: the midterm elections.
- Friday, November 6: our five-day window for XLE closes.
Probability Trader Pro publishes probability research for education only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Probabilities are projections from historical data; they are not certainties. Company figures are from the companies' own releases.
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