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Probability Trader Pro
Daily News Brief
Thursday, October 29, 2026 · Odds as of Wednesday's close
A busy 24 hours: the Fed held rates, Microsoft and Alphabet went in opposite directions after their earnings, and this morning's report showed the economy growing faster than expected. Today's free pick is a chip-testing company that just had a very strong quarter.
Today's free pick: TER
Our model gives Teradyne (TER) a 94.5% chance of closing higher five trading days from now, well above our 75% line for Gate 1. Teradyne makes the machines that test computer chips before they ship, and it also makes robots for factories. The stock closed Wednesday at $313.24.
A note on the number: yesterday morning the model had TER at 74%, just under our line. Wednesday's trading lifted it to 95%. Unlike Tuesday's pick, the company news was already public. Teradyne reported on Tuesday evening, so the market had a full day to react before these odds were set.
Here is what the company reported. Third-quarter revenue was $1.31 billion, up 70% from $769 million a year ago, and above the top of its own forecast. Revenue from memory-chip testing and from testing whole systems hit records, which the company credits to demand for AI. Its robotics business had its best third quarter yet and turned a profit.
There is another side. Revenue slipped about 2% from the second quarter, and the company's forecast for the current quarter ($1.25 to $1.35 billion) is roughly flat. Compared with a year ago, growth is huge; compared with last quarter, it has leveled off for now. The good news for the five-day window: Teradyne has already reported, so there is no earnings surprise waiting inside it.
Is it a sure thing? No. A 94.5% probability means that roughly one time in twenty, a stock in this pattern has closed lower. We'll look back at how TER did once the five days are up.
The odds this morning
After every close, our models update the odds that each fund will be higher about a week from now. A 50% reading is a coin flip. The dots show where each fund stood yesterday morning.
- Big tech (QQQ, Nasdaq 100): 81%, up from 65%.
- Small companies (IWM, Russell 2000): 63%, unchanged.
- Broad market (SPY, S&P 500): 23%, down from 31%. Leaning lower.
One important caution. These odds come from Wednesday's close, and after the close Alphabet (Google) fell about 10%. Alphabet is one of the largest holdings in the big-tech fund, and in the communications fund, which the model now has at 98%. A price-only model can't see a drop that hasn't reached the closing price yet. It is the same lesson as Tuesday's CLS pick, in the other direction. Tomorrow's odds will include it.
The equal-weight S&P 500 fund, where every company counts the same, edged up from 38% to 40%. The typical company still leans slightly lower.
Under the hood
Across the 280 stocks we follow, more stocks moved toward the middle. 50 are at 75% or better (58 yesterday), 88 lean mildly higher (66), and 142 lean lower (156). The average stock sits at 50%, a true coin flip.
Plenty of reshuffling underneath: 69 stocks gained at least 10 points of odds in a single day and 67 lost at least 10.
Among the sector funds, the biggest gains were materials (XLB, 58% to 82%), consumer discretionary (XLY, 62% to 84%) and communications (XLC, 76% to 98%, before Alphabet's drop). The biggest declines were consumer staples (XLP, 54% to 22%), gold miners (GDX, 87% to 66%) and industrials (XLI, 71% to 50%). The energy fund (XLE) is still low at 19%. The models read how prices behave, not the headlines.
The news
The Fed holds, but two members wanted a hike
The Federal Reserve kept its key rate at 3.75%–4.00%, as expected. The vote was 10 to 2: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack wanted another quarter-point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh said the September hike is starting to work but the job of bringing inflation down is not finished. He would not say what comes next, though many investors expect another increase at the December 8–9 meeting.
Why it matters: higher rates make borrowing more expensive for companies and households, and they tend to weigh on stocks whose value depends on growth far in the future.
Big tech: Microsoft up, Alphabet down
- Microsoft (MSFT): revenue of $92.3 billion, up 19%, ahead of Wall Street's estimates. Its Azure cloud business grew 48% to $33.2 billion. The stock rose about 4% after hours.
- Alphabet (GOOGL): revenue of $127.6 billion, up 25%, and Google Cloud more than doubled to $30.7 billion. But revenue and profit fell short of estimates, and the company spent $51.4 billion on data centers and equipment in the quarter, more than its business brought in. It also said that spending will rise significantly in 2027. The stock fell about 10% after hours.
Why it matters: both companies are growing fast from AI. Investors rewarded the one whose spending is showing up as profit now, and punished the one whose spending is running ahead of its cash. That spending is also the demand behind chip-equipment makers like today's pick.
The economy grew faster than expected; inflation stays high
This morning's government report showed the economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, faster than the 3.2% economists expected and up from 2.2% in the spring. The Fed's preferred inflation measure rose 3.6% over the past year in September, up from 3.4% in August. Leaving out food and energy, it rose 3.1%.
Why it matters: a strong economy is good news for company sales. But inflation well above the Fed's 2% goal keeps a December rate hike on the table.
Still ahead
- Today, after the close: Amazon, Intel and Starbucks report.
- Friday: Exxon, Chevron and AbbVie report.
- Tuesday, November 3: the midterm elections.
Probability Trader Pro publishes probability research for education only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Probabilities are projections from historical data; they are not certainties. Company figures are from the companies' own releases.
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