This paper introduces the foundation of our system: delivering hedge-fund-quality probability forecasts for short-term stock trades, now available to individual investors.
At the heart of the platform is a proprietary machine learning engine that estimates the probability of a stock moving up over the next week. These forecasts are updated daily and built from thousands of historical setups per stock—capturing patterns that consistently precede short-term gains.
But we don’t stop at a simple prediction. Each probability is accompanied by risk-adjusted performance insights designed to help you evaluate how likely a trade is to work and what kind of outcome and risk you’re stepping into.
You’ll receive:
● A daily table of probability forecasts across all our modeled stocks (with new names added weekly)
● A refined list of “Daily Picks”—high-conviction opportunities filtered by model confidence, fundamental strength, and my personal review.
These picks are designed for swing trades, options trades (calls or puts), or our specialized 90% cash-covered put system. You’ll also have access to our EDTL method for structured trade management—giving you a complete framework from entry to exit.
Our probability models achieve an average precision of 70%, with many names exceeding 80%. For comparison, even top hedge funds often succeed with just 50–65% accuracy—our edge lies in getting the forecast right from the start. If you’re looking for structured, data-driven confidence in your trades—this is where it begins.
The average retail trader isn’t failing because of a lack of effort—they’re failing because they’re
operating at a disadvantage.
The Tools Gap
Institutional traders have access to cutting-edge technology, massive datasets, proprietary
algorithms, and teams of analysts. Retail traders? They’re often stuck with free charting software, delayed news feeds, and technical indicators developed decades ago.
It’s like trying to compete in Formula 1 with a bicycle.
Our system closes this gap. We use machine learning and statistical modeling—tools once
reserved for hedge funds—to give you daily, actionable probabilities for short-term trades. You don’t need a math degree or a Bloomberg terminal. We do the heavy lifting and deliver the results in a simple, structured format.
The Probability Problem
Most trading platforms and strategies don’t tell you the one thing you really want to know:
What’s the chance this trade actually works?
Retail traders rely on patterns, gut feelings, or someone else’s opinion—but rarely know the historical odds. That’s risky. Professionals think in probabilities. They know that even with a 60%-win rate, they can win consistently—because they manage size, control risk, and
understand the expected return.
We solve this by giving you an actual probability estimate for every trade we cover. Not just “this stock looks strong,” but:
“This setup has a 74% historical success rate for a one-week trade.”
That number is everything. It helps you position smarter, manage risk better, and trade with conviction.
The Wrong Metrics
Many traders only track wins and losses or focus on how much they made last week. But professionals use a more refined lens. They ask:
● How risky was that return?
● How consistent is this system?
● What’s the worst that could happen?
That’s why each of our probability forecasts includes key performance metrics in addition to the probability:
These are the same risk-adjusted metrics used at hedge funds and institutional desks—but now they’re available to you, daily, with no work on your part required.
What if, instead of guessing where a stock is going, you had a reliable probability backed by data, history, and real-world performance? That’s the idea behind our system—a model-driven forecasting engine that delivers one-week probability estimates for hundreds of actively traded stocks.
A System Built from Experience
This isn’t a theoretical model built in a vacuum. It’s a product of over 17 years of market experience, beginning just before the 2008 financial crisis. After years of working with training firms, live chatrooms, and navigating every market environment, the foundation was laid for a better trade method—quantitatively and systematically.
Here’s how the system evolved:
● 2019 – Developed the 90% cash-covered put system,
identifying strike levels with a historical breach rate of
less than 10%.
● 2020 – Introduced the EDTL swing trade method,
designed to manage stocks that were assigned via puts.
This enabled dynamic position sizing and excess alpha
through structured secondary trades.
● (V1) 2021 – Released the first probability model: a
simple single-model engine using about 20 technical
indicators.
● (V2) 2023 – Expanded to 200+ stocks with five base
models and three stacked models, emphasized
prediction accuracy, introduced several proprietary
indicators, and implemented model stacking to improve robustness.
● 2023 – Added logic for optimal CALL/PUT strike selection based on expected return,
improving directional options trading.
● (V3) Sep 2024 until April 2025, over 7 months of development – Major system
upgrade:
o Now uses eight base models and three stacked models for every stock
o Over 150 routine and custom-built indicators
o Emphasizes calibration accuracy over raw precision
o Introduced probability bands with associated financial performance metrics
(expected return, drawdown, Sharpe, Sortino, etc.)
“Every mistake was a great learning experience.” The current system is the product of hundreds of refinements and the pain points of real-world trading.
Sample from our daily forecast—metrics tied to historical probability bands.
As a member, you get more than just stock picks—you get a complete decision-making toolkit designed to bring structure, clarity, and edge to your weekly trading.
Whether you’re swing trading, selling puts, or positioning with options, every element of the system is designed to help you:
● Trade with confidence, not guesswork
● Understand both reward and risk before you commit
● Use clear rules to size positions, choose strikes, and time exits
What You Get with Your Membership
(Included in your $49/month subscription – no contracts, cancel anytime)
| Feature | Description |
|---|---|
|
Daily Probability
Forecasts |
One-week probability predictions for all our actively modeled
stocks are updated daily. |
|
Risk-Adjusted
Performance Metrics |
For every forecast: Expected Return, Win Rate, Sharpe Ratio,
Sortino Ratio, Profit Factor, Max Drawdown. |
|
Curated “Daily Picks” |
Hand-selected, high-conviction trades filtered for both technical
strength and strong fundamentals. |
|
Supports Multiple
Strategies |
Use for swing trading, call/put buying, or our 90% confidence
cash-covered put system. |
|
EDTL Trade Management
System |
Know exactly how many shares to buy, when to add, and how to
manage the position. |
|
Strike Selection Tools |
Pinpoint the optimal strike price and expiration for puts and
directional calls based on expected outcomes. |
|
Band-Based Historical
Tracking |
Performance metrics grouped by probability bands (e.g., 65–75%,
75–100%) for transparency and context. |
|
Weekly Expansion &
Updates |
New stocks are added regularly, model performance is tracked,
and ongoing refinements are implemented. |
Every tool listed above works together to give you a clear edge: quantified probabilities, risk-adjusted insights, curated opportunities, and structured trade execution support.
Instead of sifting through noise, you’ll know where the odds are highest—and how to act on them with discipline.
Can’t Be Replaced by Generic AI
In a world where AI is everywhere, it’s tempting to think you could ask a chatbot for stock picks—but that’s not what this is.
Our system isn’t off-the-shelf AI. It’s a custom-built machine learning engine designed for one-week stock prediction. It’s shaped by:
● Years of hands-on market experience
● Careful feature selection and calibration
● Human oversight and interpretation of every model
● Ongoing tracking and refinement based on actual market results
This isn’t just AI—it’s AI guided by a trader who’s lived through every kind of market and built tools that reflect that experience.
You won’t get this from ChatGPT or any generic model. This is your edge.
Let’s walk through how a typical member might use the system during a trading week.
Step 1: Scan the Daily Forecast Table (this includes ALL stocks)
You log in and review the updated probability forecasts. You see that QQQ has a 92% probability of a one-week gain with an expected return of 1.6%, a Sharpe ratio of 5.2, and a max drawdown of just 0.17%.
This isn’t a hunch—it’s a statistically backed forecast based on hundreds of similar historical setups.
Step 2: Check the “Daily Picks” List (human-reviewed subset of stocks)
You then check the curated Daily Picks list. QQQ is on it—meaning it passed both the technical and fundamental screens.
That gives you added confidence. This trade has strong model support, as well as being fundamentally sound and human-reviewed.
Step 3: Choose a Trading Strategy That Fits You
Depending on your risk tolerance and style, you could:
● Swing trade QQQ using common stock, holding for 3–5 days.
● Sell a cash-covered put at a strike level where the stock only closes below 10% of the
time (our 90% Put System).
● Buy a call option, using our expected return data to target the ideal strike price.
The numbers guide you—you make the final decision based on your trading preferences.
Step 4: Manage the Trade with Structure — Not Guesswork
Once in the trade, you don’t have to rely on emotion or gut instinct to manage it. You can apply our EDTL swing trade management system, which has been developed specifically for scenarios like this.
With EDTL, you’ll know:
● How many shares to buy based on capital and model confidence
● When to add more shares (if at all), based on structured position-sizing logic
● Where to exit—either by taking profits, exiting early, or holding through the one-week
forecast horizon And if you’re trading options:
● You’ll know the ideal strike price to select for buying a call or put
● You’ll be guided to the right expiration date based on expected return and weekly timing
● For selling cash-covered puts, you’ll get the strike level with a 90% historical probability of staying out-of-the-money
Whether you trade stocks or options, this system provides clear, rule-based guidelines—no guesswork, no overtrading, no panic decisions.
There are countless trading services, stock screeners, newsletters, and AI tools out there, but none offer what we do. Here’s what sets us apart:
Quantified Probabilities—Not
Opinions
Most services use vague language, such as “bullish setup,” “strong support,” or
“likely to move.”
We give you a number:
“There’s a 78% historical probability this
trade ends profitably in one week.”
This is the kind of information
institutional traders use daily—and now you have access to it.
Machine Learning with Human Oversight
Our models are powered by real machine learning—Random Forest, XGBoost, and stacked ensembles trained on thousands of real trade setups.
But they’re also guided by human experience, honed over 17+ years of trading and system development.
Every daily recommended trade is reviewed, validated, and refined before it reaches you.
Calibrated, Transparent, and Trackable
We don’t just throw out probabilities—we track their performance.
Real-world metrics support every probability band:
● MIN/MAX – the lower and upper levels of the probability band
● Historical win rate (WR)
● Profit Factor (PF)
● Expected return (ER)
● Sharpe and Sortino ratios
● Max drawdown (Max DD)
That means you can see how these signals have worked in the past.
AND you do not need to review the entire table. I will do that for you. You only see the result corresponding to the predicted probability.
Optimized for Real Retail Traders
We don’t require you to learn Python, understand options Greeks, or spend hours backtesting strategies.
Everything is designed for clarity and usability:
● Easy-to-read tables
● Cherry-picked Daily Picks
● Guidance on strike selection and trade sizing
● Swing trade management built in with EDTL
We’re Not a Chatbot. We’re Your Edge.
In a world where everyone is turning to generic AI for stock tips, our edge is simple:
We built the system, trained the models, and tracked the results.
This is not ChatGPT giving opinions—it’s a custom, purpose-built engine with deep market insight behind every number.
This is your edge—designed, tested, and continually improved to help you win.
If you’ve ever felt like you’re trading blind—unsure of what’s coming next, relying on hunches or headlines—it’s time to change that.
With our system, you’ll have what most retail traders never get:
● Quantified confidence in your trades
● Clear expectations for return and risk
● A disciplined framework to support every trade decision
● Daily insights from a system built on real experience—not hype
Whether you’re swing trading, selling puts, or buying options, you’ll know:
● Which stocks offer the best odds this week
● How much you can expect to make
● How much risk you are taking
● And how to manage the trade from entry to exit
Your membership includes:
● Daily probability forecasts
● Full risk-return metrics with every signal
● Curated “Daily Picks” list
● Access to the EDTL™ swing trade management system
● Strike selection tools for puts and options
● And ongoing improvements as we continue building Version 3
$49/month — No Contracts. Cancel Anytime.
Join today and start using hedge-fund-level insights designed for retail traders.
No noise. No gimmicks. Just data-driven probabilities that put the odds back in your favor.
[Join Now and Get Instant Access]